As are most of you, I am spending the majority of my time at home.
If any of you think this is a short term state of affairs, you are sadly mistaken. The positive side of flattening out an epidemic curve is that the medical system doesn’t get overwhelmed. The downside is that, by flattening the curve, the epidemic is prolonged for months. Expect that, with bad luck, we are looking at a minimum of six months and probably more realistically a dozen months before any semblance of normality returns.
At that point, there is going to be little left of the developing world as the health care system there is not robust, to say the least. Similar to the 1918 Influenza Epidemic, we will never have an accurate picture of the number of lives lost in many areas as neither birth nor deaths are accurately recorded. Many areas and countries have a fragile logistical system which is constantly disrupted by conflict, militias, and environmental disasters.
Most of the more developed world will be in severe economic straits with our more vulnerable populations decimated as individuals and families no longer have the ability to pay for shelter, food, clothing or health care. Those countries with good health care systems that cover everyone will fare far better than the US. I honestly expect that Canada, Norway, Sweden, and Finland will come out of this crisis with large portions of their population and economies intact. Australia may be able to do the same. Western and Central Europe will have major challenges as they are so interdependent for food and energy.
and all of this is gloomy.
I think I will go back to my cross-stitch….